Following a comeback win in Miami on Monday, the Titans look to extend their win streak to two against divisional foes Houston.
Tennessee's offense roared to life after going down 27-13 on Monday Night Football. However, fourth-quarter touchdowns from DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry saw them secure a one-point win.
Regarding Houston, they received a thumping from the New York Jets in Week 14.
The game went into the half tied 0-0, but New York posted 30 points in the second half on their way to a blowout win.
In the process, Houston saw both C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins exit the game. Based on current odds, the perception is that both won't play in Nashville.
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Titans are a 2.5-point favorite for this game. Alternatively, bettors can back the Titans on the moneyline at -145.
As for the over/under, oddsmakers have set the total at 38 points.
Ahead of Sunday's game, here's a breakdown of the contest and my best bet.
Titans vs. Texans Matchup Notes
Unsurprisingly, the Titans are significantly better at running the ball behind Derrick Henry.
Entering Week 15, Tennessee is 15th in rush offense DVOA to pair with ninth in rushing yards per attempt, per ftnfantasy.com.
They also excel at turning upfield and creating explosive ground plays, as they're 10th in open field yards per attempt.
But, they're encountering a Texans defense that has performed quite well against the run. Houston is second in yards per attempt despite sitting 13th in rush defense DVOA.
Where there's opportunity for Tennessee, it's in the passing game.
The Texans are 26th in passing yards allowed per game and sixth-worst in passing yards per game allowed on the road.
They also allow teams to complete a high percentage of throws, as Houston ranks 30th in completion percentage.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans defense should see their biggest weakness mitigated thanks to Houston's injuries.
Tennessee sits 29th in pass defense DVOA, yet fourth in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com
They also get to play at home in Week 15, which is particularly meaningful.
Tennessee's defense is allowing only 1.4 offensive touchdowns at Nissan Stadium compared to 2.1 away from home.
In terms of the former metric, that's good for second in the NFL.
Titans vs. Texans Betting Prediction
Unless Stroud and Collins are able to play, this is a terrible spot for the Texans.
Last week against Miami – a much better pass defense than Houston – the Titans posted their best performance by pass offense DVOA.
Even if they struggle to run the ball, Houston's secondary leaves more questions than answers.
At the same time, I'm not sure how the Texans score enough points to keep up against one of the league's best home defenses.
Normally, I like backing Mike Vrabel as an underdog, but he's shown himself to be capable of covering as favorites.
Two weeks ago against the Panthers, a side that beat the Texans at full strength, they earned a 17-10 victory.
For those reasons, I'll lay the points with the Titans.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Week 15 NFL odds.
