The Tennessee Titans are looking to snap a five-game losing streak and five-game ATS winless streak against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. As of Tuesday's NFL odds at BetMGM, the Titans are a 9.5-point home underdog (+333 moneyline) in a game with an over/under total of 41.5.
Here are six NFL betting trends for the Thursday Night Football matchup :
9.5-Point Favorites
Historically, 10 points is the fourth-most common margin of victory – behind three, seven, and six. But it hasn't been easy for 9.5-point favorites to win by 10 points in recent years, nor has it been easy for them to win by more than 10 points.
Since going 27-15 (.643) against the spread from 2005-08, 9.5-point favorites are 33-41 over the last 14 years.
The Cowboys do have one of the three ATS wins for 9.5-point favorites this season; they covered against the Chicago Bears in Week 8.
Big Dogs, Low Totals
From 2003-17, underdogs of at least nine points struggled to cover in games with a total lower than 42. They covered 45% of more than 200 opportunities and finished with an above-.500 season-long ATS record only four times in those 15 seasons.
The trend flipped in 2018, and enters Week 17 on a four-game ATS winning streak. Since 2018, big dogs in low-total games are 18-9-1 (.667) against the spread – including an 0-fer 2021 season (0-3-1).
Big Dogs Covering But Losing
Underdogs of at least seven points dominated moneylines and spreads through the first 10 weeks of the season. And they've remained strong against the spread since Week 11 (12-10-1) but can't find outright wins.
They're on a 23-game losing streak entering Week 17.
Rookie QBs
Six rookie quarterbacks have started at least one game this season. Those six quarterbacks are collectively 13-7 (.650) against the spread, including 1-1 for Malik Willis.
It's a return to ATS success after covering in just 41% (30-43) starts last year, down from 60% (27-18) in 2020.
Dak Prescott vs. the Spread
The Dallas Cowboys are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the best regular-season ATS record since 2021 (22-10). Dak Prescott owns 17 of those 22 ATS wins over that time (17-9), but six of his nine ATS losses have come in his last 12 starts, including three in his last five starts.
Cooper Rush, meanwhile, is 5-1 against the spread the last two years.
Prescott is years from the Jay Cutler Auto-Fade Hall of Fame – Cutler covered in 40% of his career starts, by far the worst mark among quarterbacks with at least 75 starts since 2000 – but he's struggling to cover lately.
Titans vs. 1H Spread
In the 15 years before Mike Vrabel arrived in Nashville, the Titans struggled against the first-half spread. Only the Arizona Cardinals had a worse first-half cover rate (.442) than the Titans (.443).
The struggles worsened in 2018 and carried into 2019 as they covered the first-half spread in just 11 of the first 30 games under Vrabel.
Then a switch flipped in late December 2019; they covered in 31 of 46 first halves (.674) from Week 16 of the 2019 season through Week 11 of the 2022 season. It was the league's best first-half ATS record over that time.
Is the switch flipping back?
The Titans have covered just one first-half spread in their last four games. In the three first-half ATS losses, they're failing to cover by an average of seven points.
As of Tuesday, they're a 6-point first-half underdog in Week 17.
You can view all updated odds for Titans-Cowboys and all NFL games at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
